Prediction Markets are now open in public beta. Every turn of a transcribed backgammon match opens a short market on what the next roll will be — HIGH, LOW, SEVEN, doubles or an exact total — and settles the moment the recorded dice land. It is the smallest possible unit of backgammon prediction, and it repeats dozens of times per match.
What the beta actually is
Be clear on this before you play: the current experience is a mock replay, not a live table. It replays a genuine transcribed match, turn by turn, with synthetic timecodes so the markets open and close on a real clock. The dice, moves and score are the ones that were actually recorded in that match; the pacing is ours. The session runs on a schedule, resets when the game ends, and starts again from the top of the hour.
Real dice math, not made-up odds
Prices come from the true distribution of two dice: 36 ordered outcomes, 21 distinct combinations. Seven is the most common total at six of 36. Any specific double is one in 36, and the six doubles together occupy 6 of the 36 ordered outcomes — one in six. Totals thin out sharply at the edges — a 2 or a 12 is a single outcome each. Every market on the board is derived from those counts rather than a hand-set number, so the payouts you see reflect the actual chance of the event.
What you get on the board
- A live SVG board rendered from the recorded moves, so you can see the position the roll will land into.
- A market clock showing the open betting window and the locked period before the dice.
- HIGH, LOW and SEVEN markets plus doubles and exact totals.
- A roll feed with the match's recent history and running score.
Free to play, virtual points only
Positions are settled in virtual points. There is no real-money wagering, no deposits, no withdrawals and no cash value of any kind. This is entertainment and a way to train your feel for dice probability — nothing more.
Where it goes next
The mock replay exists so the pricing, clock and settlement engine can be proven against a known match before live land-based tables are transcribed into it. Expect longer market history, more market types and coverage of real events as the beta progresses. If a market prices or settles in a way you cannot explain, tell us the turn number — that is exactly the feedback the beta is for.
